A blue wave or blue ripple: Who really won the Midterms?
Editorial November 16, 2018, Comments OffThe following is an editorial in which all views, thoughts or opinions belong solely to the author and do not represent those of The Drury Mirror.
The midterm election of 2018 was definitely one to remember. Voter turnout was higher than it has been in decades, 47 percent of the voting-eligible population. The last time turnout was so high was 1966 at 49 percent. More than 110 million Americans braved long lines, broken ballot machines and crammed polling places across the country.
There are multiple factors that play into why so many people decided to vote this year. On election day, President Trump’s approval rating sat at just under 42 percent. Pop star Taylor Swift caused a spike in voter registration after endorsing Democratic candidates in Tennessee races. One of the biggest movements to encourage voter turnout and swing the election was the “Blue Wave,” a term used to describe Democrats’ goals to take majority control of the House of Representatives, the Senate, and state legislatures and governorships. Polls, political experts and journalists all clamored to predict just how much power Democrats would be able to wrest away from Trump and the Republican Party.
Photo via Rosemary Ketchum of Pexels.
Now, in the days following the midterm election, the question stands: did the Blue Wave happen?
A contentious question
Ask President Trump, and the answer would be a resounding “no.” Following the election, Trump tweeted that it was a “big victory” and a “tremendous success” for the Republican Party. It is important, however, to recognize that presidential tweets are not exactly political gospel.
As the results stand now (Nov. 12, 2018), Democrats won 227 House seats, giving them a 52 percent majority in the House. Even if Republicans win all 10 undeclared seats, they would only have 208. The last time Democrats won so many House seats in a midterm election was 1974…just after Watergate.
Control of the House is essential for Democrats to check the president’s power. Drury University’s Dr. Dan Ponder told KSMU, “If [Trump] wants to have anything accomplished, then he will have to work with Democrats.”
But is this enough to classify as the Blue Wave? Despite winning control of the House, Democrats lost Senate seats, including Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill. As of now, Republicans have control of the five Senate seats needed to control the Senate, resulting in a split Congress.
The Blue Wave promised a surge of Democratic lawmakers taking control of Congress to directly defy President Trump. In reality, they only took half of Congress. Ponder points out, however, they may have taken the better half.
“It also probably means that there will be some investigations into his [Trump’s] finances, his taxes, depending on what falls from the Mueller investigation,” said Ponder.
Beyond just Congress
Democrats also won more than 250 of the state legislative seats lost during Barack Obama’s presidency. Democrats took control of seven state legislatures, while Republicans only flipped one. Seven state chambers now have Democratic supermajorities, which gives them the power to override governor vetoes, and stole three away from Republican state legislators. 2018 broke the record for non-split legislatures. Only Minnesota can boast a divided legislature. The last time only one state remained divided was 1914.
As of writing this, two governor races are undeclared, and Republicans lead over Democrats 25-23.
State elections matter, as governors have potential veto power over redistricting maps that will be drawn after the 2020 census. The people drawing those lines? State legislators. Missouri has taken a stance against the possibility of gerrymandering with the passing of Amendment 1, which many Republican candidates were against.
2018 also may not necessarily be the year you want to win, either. “Presidents tend to get most of what they want in the first couple of years, and the second part of their terms tends to be less productive anyway,” said Ponder.
The 2020 presidential election will be where both parties have the most to gain – or to lose. When Democrats lost the House in 2010, President Obama still got reelected in 2012, and that midterm saw Republicans win 63 House seats. That is three times more than what Democrats won in 2018.
So… what’s the answer?
In the end, it all depends on what your individual values and goals are as to whether we saw a Blue Wave. Personally, I think we did. In Missouri, Democratic-endorsed legislation prevailed where Republican officials succeeded. In Washington, we may not have seen a tsunami, but control over the congressional house responsible for investigating the president, writing the budget and, of course, half of the legislative process is not something to be taken lightly. And while the wave may not have surged over every state, millions of voters made enough of a flood to gain attention in this, a dangerously partisan time.
Article by Forest Swisher.
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